A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
